Bitcoin price volatility has always been a hot topic in the economic world as well as the academia, and many researchers have explored the price dynamic formation from different aspects. This study employs the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model to explain the bitcoin price formation from the perspective of miners hoarding behavior. For one thing, miners hoarding bitcoin will cause the supply side to change rather than fix hinging on the bitcoin mechanism. For another, miners hoarding behavior will steer sensitive people transaction activities. Thus miners hoarding behavior would change both supply and demand sides of bitcoin. The data we used are obtained from the CoinDesk, Glassnode, Google Trends, CoinMarketcap, BlockChain, and BTC. In particular, we have creatively developed a way to digitize miners hoarding behavior. The estimated results show that the hoarding behavior has a negative impact on the price, and the first-level lag of the hoarding behavior is positively correlated with the price, indicating that the bitcoin price has a certain predictive power. In addition, through doing two-period study, we also found that people become more sensitive to the bitcoin price and miners hoarding behavior, and take transaction actions faster after 2019.
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